Then the recession hit, devastating the economy during Bush’s final year, causing tax revenue to plummet just as the need for increased public spending skyrocketed. In response, Bush implemented numerous costly initiatives to bail out the financial industry and others, again financed with debt.
Given that backdrop, it’s interesting to see the sudden surge in deficit hawks populating both major political parties — especially since many of them previously supported the fiscal missteps of the Bush administration. It’d be great if this newfound concern with all things deficit presaged a thoughtful, bipartisan approach to implementing sound fiscal policy designed to meet the real economic exigencies facing our county. Yeah, that’d be great. It’s also unlikely.
That’s because most deficit concerns being raised are motivated far more by politics than any desire to pass good policy. So much so that facts are being intentionally distorted or ignored while fiscally immaterial, short-term initiatives are wrongly being castigated as creating material, long-term issues. Nothing illustrates this deficit folderol better than the debate over whether to extend the time period for claiming unemployment insurance benefits.
The UI program is intended to ensure the unemployed have a little something to cover living expenses while looking for work. In fact, demonstrating that you’re actively seeking a job is a condition to being eligible for UI benefits, which currently average a meager $293 per week. In normal times, a person can generally receive UI benefits for a maximum of 26 weeks, or just over six months. In extraordinarily difficult times, the feds have extended the benefit period.
Today, of America’s 15
million unemployed
workers, almost half,
6.9 million or 46
percent, have already
been unemployed more
than six months, the
highest percentage
suffering from long-term
unemployment since the
feds first began
monitoring it in 1948.
The Congressional Budget
Office estimates the
cost of extending UI
benefits to those
unemployed long term
will be $40 billion
through November.
Deficit hawks claim
government can’t afford
this, given the deficit
already eclipses $1
trillion. Some even
maintain extending UI is
counterproductive
because — get this — it
encourages the
unemployed to avoid
taking jobs so they can
keep receiving that
great benefit check from
the feds. Time for a
reality check.
Start with the cost of
the extension — $40
billion. Sure, that’s a
lot of money in the
abstract. In context of
the federal deficit,
however, not so much. In
fact, it’s just 3
percent of the fiscal
year 2010 deficit.
Compare that to the $450
billion cost this year
for the Bush
administration’s tax
cuts, plus the interest
on the federal debt
incurred to finance
those tax cuts and the
wars. Those Bush
policies are more than
11 times costlier than
extending UI and account
for more than 40 percent
of the current deficit.
Oh, and according to
Citizens for Tax
Justice, 70 percent of
Bush’s tax break — or
just over $200 billion
in fiscal 2010 — goes to
the wealthiest 20
percent of Americans.
Certainly, helping
everyday folks who’ve
lost jobs put food on
the table and sleep
indoors is worth
one-fifth of the welfare
given to the wealthiest
by Bush’s tax cuts.
Moreover, the $40
billion for extending UI
is a one-time,
short-term cost, while
the Bush tax cuts are
long-term, recurring
costs that drill holes
in the budget every
single year, are the
greatest single cause of
the long-term deficit
and account for more of
the problem than the
recession and Barack
Obama’s stimulus
programs combined.
As for the contention
that extending UI
encourages people to
avoid finding jobs so
they can stay on the
public dole — well, it’s
just plain goofy. In May
2010, the private sector
created only 41,000
jobs. That’s 72,000 less
than what’s needed to
keep up with the demand
generated by natural
work-force growth, much
less creating the
positions needed for the
unemployed to find work.
No one’s thumbing a nose
at getting hired to live
in luxury eating
government cheese —
there simply are no
private sector jobs
available.
Perhaps the hawks have forgotten that consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation’s economy. The best consumers are low- and middle-income folks, who don’t earn enough to save, so they spend their paychecks. That is, when they have paychecks. See, if they’ve lost their jobs and the private sector isn’t creating jobs and the feds cut off unemployment benefits, their ability to spend drops to, well, nil. Which is why the amount of private sector economic activity stimulated by unemployment benefits is greater than any other fiscal action government can take. In fact, dollar-for-dollar, it’s five times more stimulative than the Bush tax cuts.
Sure, the long-term deficit has to be dealt with — but honestly and responsibly. Short-term, deficit spending — particularly on things like unemployment insurance, food stamps, housing assistance and the like — is creating jobs and saving the U.S. economy from disaster.
Ralph Martire is
executive director of
the Center for Tax and
Budget Accountability, a
bipartisan fiscal policy
think tank. His e-mail
address is rmartire@ctbaonline.org.
