|
|
|
FY 2008 Revenue Forecast |
|
|
Revenues
Struggling, Could be Down $600 Million for FY
2008
Outlook
Not Good for FY 2009
The Illinois Commission on Forecasting and
Accountability (COGFA) reports concerns with
the sales and corporate income tax revenue
performance. COGFA reported in September
2007 that,
"With
this heightened state of [economic]
uncertainty, it would not be surprising to
see revenues struggle in FY 2008".
Unfortunately, based on a year
over year percent change basis, COGFA
reports that a slowing trend continues to
advance in the combined monthly revenues of
personal, corporate, and sales taxes.
Read the full
COGFA briefing here
Personal & Corporate Income Tax
COGFA warns that
while personal income tax revenues have
continued to post above average gains, a
more fragile employment picture will
likely begin to impact receipts heading
forward. Since much of the year to date
strength has come from estimated
payments, concern is growing that a
significant reduction in growth will
occur in the spring once final payments
are made. On the plus side, gains thus
far have been significant, so even if
the slowdown is worse than expected,
enough "cushion" may have been built up
to still post a healthy gain in FY 2008.
News is not as good for corporate income tax
receipts. While the year to date decline in
gross receipts may be somewhat low due to
timing and/or processing changes, the
outlook for the remainder of the year, and
for that matter, for quite some time to
come, is not good. The latest economic
forecast calls for essentially no growth in
before tax profits continuing through next
fiscal year. As a result, it would seem
unrealistic to think that corporate income
tax receipts over the remainder of FY 2008
would do anything but continue to struggle.
Sales
Tax
Sales tax receipts continue to reflect weakness
in the consumer sector. With the exception of an
anticipated up tick in March, related to an
allocation issue experienced last year, consumer
activity is likely to continue to be weak for
the foreseeable future.
FY 2008
Budget Forecast
While the FY 2008 budget
was implemented with the hopes of recording
approximately $1.6 billion in revenue growth--COGFA
reports actual performance through January,
teamed with a slowing economy, point to revenues
falling well short of those expectations.
COGFA will be providing
an official estimate at a scheduled March 5th
meeting, receipts to date coupled with an
anticipated slowing in personal income tax
growth could result in overall growth struggling
even to reach $1 billion.
FY 2009 Revenues
COGFA reports that the
current state of economic uncertainty serves
to temper growth expectations for FY 2009.
Latest economic forecasts indicate that real
personal income as well as personal
consumption is forecast to continue to slow
in the upcoming fiscal year, while corporate
profits are expected to struggle again.
Furthermore, the
unemployment rate, which has moved
significantly higher in recent months, is
expected to continue to climb.
As a result, growth
rates of the economically related sources
are likely to fall well below historic
averages.
- Personal income
tax, while holding up quite well over the
first part of the current fiscal year, is
expected to slow eventually and continue
below average into FY 2009.
- Corporate income
tax has historically been one of the most
volatile revenue sources, illustrated by
double digit swings in seven out of the last
ten fiscal years (two of those negative).
Given the latest corporate profit outlook,
achieving any growth absent last years
"loophole" changes [P.A. 95-233], will prove
difficult.
- Sales tax revenues
have disappointed for quite some time now,
virtually all of last year and well into
this fiscal year. While it may end somewhat
improved from this year, it's unlikely that
growth will be significantly higher next
year.
A few revenue areas
that are enjoying a good FY 2008 may very
well return losses next year. For example,
inheritance tax has performed unexpectedly
strong thus far based on large settlement
activity. Inheritance tax receipts are very
volatile and, therefore, it will be
difficult to duplicate a similar
performance. Rates of return have begun to
decline, signaling a potential drop in
interest earnings. The Cook County
Intergovernmental transfer is expected to
continue to erode in the near term. And
finally, absent legislative action, certain
fund transfers are not expected to be
repeated at similar levels in the future,
i.e. income tax refund transfers and
hospital assessment program transfers.
COGFA
states that given the current uncertain
status of the economy the revenue picture
for FY 2009 is far from clear. However, it
would
appear that limited base growth is the best
that can be hoped for. Unfortunately,
appetites for expanded health care,
education, capital needs, and other worthy
programs continue to build. Add to that the
continued pension funding
pressure,
bills incurred but unable to be paid, and
the resulting budgetary difficulties
continue to build without any signs of
slowing. Again, the Commission plans on
presenting its official FY 2009 forecast at
a scheduled March 5th.
|
|
State Revenue |
|
|
January Revenue Update
Receipts Fell $10
million
The
Illinois Commission on Government
Forecasting and Accountability found that
overall receipts in January fell $10
million. Despite a few revenue sources
posting solid gains for the month, a large
drop in federal sources erased all gains.
The
falloff would have been much greater except
finalizing of the FY 2008 BIMP aided January's
receipts by approximately $105 million due to
lowered income tax refund percentage per P.A.
95-707. In effect, until SB 783 became law on
January 11th last year's refund percentages were
being utilized.
Despite an overall loss in monthly revenue, a
number of sources fared quite well.
-
Gross personal income taxes
continued to perform nicely in
January, with receipts up $91
million. And, with the resulting
adjustment for the refund percentage
change, the net increase for the
month was $200 million.
-
Similarly, gross corporate income
tax increased by $18 million, but
that gain rose to $32 million on a
net of refund basis.
-
As expected, insurance taxes and
fees posted a large gain this month,
up $31 million, due to timing of
receipts.
-
Public utility taxes grew by $26
million, although virtually all of
that gain was due to a corrected
electronically submitted payment.
Evidently, back in the
October/November period, a taxpayer
mistakenly coded their payment as
sales tax rather than public utility
tax, and a corrective adjustment
subsequently was made in January.
-
Inheritance tax grew by $6 million.
-
Liquor taxes by $5 million.
-
Corporate franchise by $2 million.
A few sources did experience declines for the
month.
-
Sales
tax fell $28 million, although most
of that decline was related to the
aforementioned corrected receipting
with public utility taxes.
Essentially, sales tax was flat
again for the month.
-
Cook
County IGT declined by $9 million.
-
Interest earnings declined by $3
million.
-
Overall transfers fell by $50
million in January. While lottery
transfers rose by $7 million, those
gains were offset by a $2 million
decline in riverboat transfers and a
$55 million falloff in all other
transfers. Federal receipts dropped
by $211
Fiscal Year to Date
Through the first
seven months of the fiscal year, overall base
receipts were up $564 million. While receipt
performance has been mixed, one area that
continues to fare well is personal income tax
receipts. Through January, receipts are up $428
million. While this revenue source continues to
be fueled by gains in withholding and estimated
payments, concerns remain about the slowed
economy. Conversely, weakness in corporate
income tax continues with receipts down $4
million on a net of refund basis. Also
underperforming is the sales tax, as receipts
are only up $3 million.
After beginning the fiscal
year on an up note, the recent drop off in
federal sources has receipts running
slightly behind last year-off $5 million.
For more information
on the budget and revenue process contact
Chrissy Mancini, director of budget and policy
analysis, at
cmancini@ctbaonline.org |
|
Statehouse
|
|
|
Lawmakers to Return to Springfield Tomorrow
Wednesday marks the start of the second year of
the two-year cycle for the 95th General
Assembly. It's also an election year for every
seat in the House and about one-third of the
seats in the Senate.
This
week, the House and Senate have scheduled
session days for Wednesday and Thursday. The
House also is in on Friday. Most activity will
focus on committee meetings, where lawmakers
will start considering new bills.
|
|
Housing |
|
Attorney General Madigan & State
Foreclosure Prevention Working Group
Release Report on Mortgage Activities
Report
Finds the Adjustable Rate Not the
Problem -
Buyers
Couldn't Afford Loan in First Place
Attorney General Lisa Madigan and an
11-state Foreclosure Prevention Working
Group have issued the first report analyzing
the performance of entities that service
subprime mortgages. Since last summer, the
group has been working to reduce the number
of residential mortgage foreclosures by
urging servicers of subprime mortgages to
undertake loan modifications and other
sustainable, long-term solutions to keep
homeowners in their homes and out of
foreclosure.
The report,
"Analysis of Subprime
Mortgage Servicing Performance,"
summarizes data for the month of October
2007 from a group of the largest subprime
mortgage servicers in an effort to measure
the extent of the foreclosure crisis and the
servicers' responses to it. The goal of the
report is to provide information that can be
used to promote initiatives to reduce the
numbers of foreclosures.
"The information in this report is
invaluable," said Attorney General Madigan.
"To date there has been a lack of reliable
data on the efforts of servicers of subprime
mortgages to mitigate losses. This report
offers our first glimpse of reliable data on
what mortgage servicers are actually doing
to provide relief to homeowners facing
foreclosure."
The report stems from a request by the
working group to the largest servicers of
subprime mortgages. The group asked the
servicers to identify and implement
comprehensive and systematic programs to
prevent unnecessary foreclosures. The report
is the first public discussion of this data
collection effort and is the first set of
loss mitigation data released to the public.
"One of the most striking findings
in the report," said Madigan, "is that the
resetting rates on adjustable rate mortgages
have not been the largest cause of
foreclosures. Instead, a large percentage of
subprime adjustable rate loans have become
delinquent prior to any rate increase on the
loan. This means that these loans were
simply unaffordable from the outset."
The report describes this problem: "weak or
non-existent underwriting coupled with high
levels of origination fraud combined to
produce loans that had no reasonable
prospect of being repaid. Rather,
these loans were originated based on the
assumption that housing appreciation would
continue indefinitely and that when
borrowers ran into trouble, they would
refinance or sell.
With this refinance option now foreclosed
from many troubled homeowners, we are seeing
the devastating results of these reckless
lending practices."
The report notes that while payment resets
on adjustable rate mortgages have not yet
been the driving force in foreclosures,
action needs to be taken to address these
loans before the payment shock that will
come when the rates reset.
Among the other key findings, the report
concludes:
-
Seven out
of 10 seriously delinquent
borrowers are not on track for
any loss mitigation option.
While some delinquent homeowners
are in contact servicers and
working toward a modification of
their loan, there continues to
be a significant lack of
interaction between subprime
mortgage servicers and
homeowners. The data in the
report indicates that the
increasing number of loan
delinquencies is outpacing the
increase in effort to modify
loans and mitigate losses.
-
Servicers
have increased their use of loan
modifications and other home
retention options. A
significant percentage of
homeowners who are in contact
with servicers are working
toward a loan modification.
-
The
refinance option has nearly
evaporated. In the past,
delinquent homeowners with
subprime loans were able to
search for and find
refinancing. Now, unless we see
dramatic changes in available
loan products or a rapid
reversal in housing prices, the
mortgage industry will not be
able to refinance its way out of
the current, growing crisis.
The data in the report comes from 13 of the
top 20 servicers, representing approximately
58 percent of the total subprime servicing
market. Of the top 20 servicers solicited
for data, seven servicers declined to
provide data. Some national banks that
service loans declined based on advice from
the Office of the Comptroller of the
Currency. Madigan and the working group
called on the remaining servicers to provide
the requested data and on the OCC to urge
national banks to report data, so that a
complete picture of the subprime servicing
market can be provided.
The working group will continue to collect
monthly data from servicers and anticipates
future reporting on this data. The group
also will continue to work directly with the
top 20 subprime servicers to remove barriers
to increasing the number of loan
modifications.
Formed in the summer of 2007, the State
Foreclosure Prevention Working Group
includes Madigan's office and the Attorneys
General from 10 other states - Iowa,
Arizona, California, Colorado,
Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, North
Carolina, Ohio, and Texas - along with the
state bank regulators from New York and
North Carolina, and the Conference of State
Bank Supervisors.
|
|
Calendar of Events |
|
WHAT?
Making the Connection:
Public Benefits and
Single Adults & Public
Benefits for Youths up
to 21
WHEN?
March 5,
2008
WHERE?
Naperville, IL
Presented by the DuPage Federation on
Human Services
Register Here
WHAT?
Making the Connection: Mental Health and
Public Benefits & Understanding
Spenddown
WHEN? March
6, 2008
WHERE?Naperville,
IL
Presented by the DuPage Federation on
Human Services
Register Here
WHAT?
Understanding Appeals & Domestic
Violence and Public Benefits
WHEN?
March
18, 2008
WHERE?Naperville,
IL
Presented by the DuPage Federation on
Human Services
Register Here
WHAT?
Center for Tax
and Budget Accountability and the
Paul Simon Institute at Southern
Illinois University Annual Downstate
Symposium
WHEN?
April 23,
2008
Details to
Follow
WHAT?
Immigrants and Public Benefits & Putting
the Pieces Together
WHEN?
March 19,
2008
WHERE?Naperville,
IL
Presented by the DuPage Federation on
Human Services
Register Here
WHAT?
Housing Action Illinois 2008
Convention: The Changing Landscape
of Affordable Housing - Finding Our
Way Together
WHEN?
May 1 - 2,
2008
WHERE?
Naperville,
Illinois
WHAT?
Making the Connection Basic Training
WHEN?
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
WHERE?
Naperville, IL
Presented by the DuPage Federation on
Human Services the session contains
practical information in an easy to
understand format regarding many
programs available to assist low income
persons.
Register Here
|
|
Do you have something to share in the
Weekly Review?
Please email Chrissy Mancini
|
|
|