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 Weekly Review
Provided through the Generous Support of the McCormick Tribune Foundation
CTBA Weekly Review February 12, 2008  
CTBA Quick Links
In This Issue
FY 2008 Revenue Forecast and FY 2009 Outlook
January Revenue Update
Senate and House Calendar
New Report on Housing Foreclosures
Calendar
FY 2008 Revenue Forecast  

Revenues Struggling, Could be Down $600 Million for FY 2008 

Outlook Not Good for FY 2009
 
The Illinois Commission on Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) reports concerns with the sales and corporate income tax revenue performance.  COGFA reported in September 2007 that, "With this heightened state of [economic] uncertainty, it would not be surprising to see revenues struggle in FY 2008". Unfortunately, based on a year over year percent change basis, COGFA reports that a slowing trend continues to advance in the combined monthly revenues of personal, corporate, and sales taxes.  Read the full COGFA briefing here
 
Personal & Corporate Income Tax
COGFA warns that while personal income tax revenues have continued to post above average gains, a more fragile employment picture will likely begin to impact receipts heading forward. Since much of the year to date strength has come from estimated payments, concern is growing that a significant reduction in growth will occur in the spring once final payments are made. On the plus side, gains thus far have been significant, so even if the slowdown is worse than expected, enough "cushion" may have been built up to still post a healthy gain in FY 2008.
 
News is not as good for corporate income tax receipts. While the year to date decline in gross receipts may be somewhat low due to timing and/or processing changes, the outlook for the remainder of the year, and for that matter, for quite some time to come, is not good. The latest economic forecast calls for essentially no growth in before tax profits continuing through next fiscal year. As a result, it would seem unrealistic to think that corporate income tax receipts over the remainder of FY 2008 would do anything but continue to struggle.
 
Sales Tax

Sales tax receipts continue to reflect weakness in the consumer sector. With the exception of an anticipated up tick in March, related to an allocation issue experienced last year, consumer activity is likely to continue to be weak for the foreseeable future.

 

FY 2008 Budget Forecast

While the FY 2008 budget was implemented with the hopes of recording approximately $1.6 billion in revenue growth--COGFA reports actual performance through January, teamed with a slowing economy, point to revenues falling well short of those expectations.  COGFA will be providing an official estimate at a scheduled March 5th meeting, receipts to date coupled with an anticipated slowing in personal income tax growth could result in overall growth struggling even to reach $1 billion.

Read the CTBA Issue Brief:  FY 2008 Budget Deficit
 

FY 2009 Revenues

COGFA reports that the current state of economic uncertainty serves to temper growth expectations for FY 2009. Latest economic forecasts indicate that real personal income as well as personal consumption is forecast to continue to slow in the upcoming fiscal year, while corporate profits are expected to struggle again.
 
Furthermore, the unemployment rate, which has moved significantly higher in recent months, is expected to continue to climb.
 
As a result, growth rates of the economically related sources are likely to fall well below historic averages.
 
  • Personal income tax, while holding up quite well over the first part of the current fiscal year, is expected to slow eventually and continue below average into FY 2009.
  • Corporate income tax has historically been one of the most volatile revenue sources, illustrated by double digit swings in seven out of the last ten fiscal years (two of those negative). Given the latest corporate profit outlook, achieving any growth absent last years "loophole" changes [P.A. 95-233], will prove difficult.
  • Sales tax revenues have disappointed for quite some time now, virtually all of last year and well into this fiscal year. While it may end somewhat improved from this year, it's unlikely that growth will be significantly higher next year.
 
A few revenue areas that are enjoying a good FY 2008 may very well return losses next year. For example, inheritance tax has performed unexpectedly strong thus far based on large settlement activity. Inheritance tax receipts are very volatile and, therefore, it will be difficult to duplicate a similar performance. Rates of return have begun to decline, signaling a potential drop in interest earnings. The Cook County Intergovernmental transfer is expected to continue to erode in the near term. And finally, absent legislative action, certain fund transfers are not expected to be repeated at similar levels in the future, i.e. income tax refund transfers and hospital assessment program transfers.
 
COGFA states that given the current uncertain status of the economy the revenue picture for FY 2009 is far from clear. However, it would appear that limited base growth is the best that can be hoped for. Unfortunately, appetites for expanded health care, education, capital needs, and other worthy programs continue to build. Add to that the continued pension funding pressure, bills incurred but unable to be paid, and the resulting budgetary difficulties continue to build without any signs of slowing. Again, the Commission plans on presenting its official FY 2009 forecast at a scheduled March 5th.
 
State Revenue  
January Revenue Update
Receipts Fell $10 million
 
The Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability found that overall receipts in January fell $10 million. Despite a few revenue sources posting solid gains for the month, a large drop in federal sources erased all gains.

The falloff would have been much greater except finalizing of the FY 2008 BIMP aided January's receipts by approximately $105 million due to lowered income tax refund percentage per P.A. 95-707. In effect, until SB 783 became law on January 11th last year's refund percentages were being utilized.

 
Despite an overall loss in monthly revenue, a number of sources fared quite well.
  • Gross personal income taxes continued to perform nicely in January, with receipts up $91 million. And, with the resulting adjustment for the refund percentage change, the net increase for the month was $200 million.
  • Similarly, gross corporate income tax increased by $18 million, but that gain rose to $32 million on a net of refund basis.
  • As expected, insurance taxes and fees posted a large gain this month, up $31 million, due to timing of receipts.
  • Public utility taxes grew by $26 million, although virtually all of that gain was due to a corrected electronically submitted payment. Evidently, back in the October/November period, a taxpayer mistakenly coded their payment as sales tax rather than public utility tax, and a corrective adjustment subsequently was made in January.
  • Inheritance tax grew by $6 million.
  • Liquor taxes by $5 million.
  • Corporate franchise by $2 million.

A few sources did experience declines for the month.

  • Sales tax fell $28 million, although most of that decline was related to the aforementioned corrected receipting with public utility taxes. Essentially, sales tax was flat again for the month.
  • Cook County IGT declined by $9 million.
  • Interest earnings declined by $3 million.
  • Overall transfers fell by $50 million in January. While lottery transfers rose by $7 million, those gains were offset by a $2 million decline in riverboat transfers and a $55 million falloff in all other transfers. Federal receipts dropped by $211
Fiscal Year to Date

Through the first seven months of the fiscal year, overall base receipts were up $564 million. While receipt performance has been mixed, one area that continues to fare well is personal income tax receipts. Through January, receipts are up $428 million.  While this revenue source continues to be fueled by gains in withholding and estimated payments, concerns remain about the slowed economy. Conversely, weakness in corporate income tax continues with receipts down $4 million on a net of refund basis. Also underperforming is the sales tax, as receipts are only up $3 million.

After beginning the fiscal year on an up note, the recent drop off in federal sources has receipts running slightly behind last year-off $5 million.
 

 

For more information on the budget and revenue process contact Chrissy Mancini, director of budget and policy analysis, at cmancini@ctbaonline.org
Statehouse
 

Lawmakers to Return to Springfield Tomorrow

Wednesday marks the start of the second year of the two-year cycle for the 95th General Assembly. It's also an election year for every seat in the House and about one-third of the seats in the Senate.

This week, the House and Senate have scheduled session days for Wednesday and Thursday. The House also is in on Friday. Most activity will focus on committee meetings, where lawmakers will start considering new bills.

 
 
 
Housing  
Attorney General Madigan & State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group Release Report on Mortgage Activities
 
Report Finds the Adjustable Rate Not the Problem -
Buyers Couldn't Afford Loan in First Place

Attorney General Lisa Madigan and an 11-state Foreclosure Prevention Working Group have issued the first report analyzing the performance of entities that service subprime mortgages. Since last summer, the group has been working to reduce the number of residential mortgage foreclosures by urging servicers of subprime mortgages to undertake loan modifications and other sustainable, long-term solutions to keep homeowners in their homes and out of foreclosure.

The report, "Analysis of Subprime Mortgage Servicing Performance," summarizes data for the month of October 2007 from a group of the largest subprime mortgage servicers in an effort to measure the extent of the foreclosure crisis and the servicers' responses to it.  The goal of the report is to provide information that can be used to promote initiatives to reduce the numbers of foreclosures.

"The information in this report is invaluable," said Attorney General Madigan. "To date there has been a lack of reliable data on the efforts of servicers of subprime mortgages to mitigate losses. This report offers our first glimpse of reliable data on what mortgage servicers are actually doing to provide relief to homeowners facing foreclosure."

The report stems from a request by the working group to the largest servicers of subprime mortgages. The group asked the servicers to identify and implement comprehensive and systematic programs to prevent unnecessary foreclosures. The report is the first public discussion of this data collection effort and is the first set of loss mitigation data released to the public.

"One of the most striking findings in the report," said Madigan, "is that the resetting rates on adjustable rate mortgages have not been the largest cause of foreclosures. Instead, a large percentage of subprime adjustable rate loans have become delinquent prior to any rate increase on the loan. This means that these loans were simply unaffordable from the outset."

The report describes this problem: "weak or non-existent underwriting coupled with high levels of origination fraud combined to produce loans that had no reasonable prospect of being repaid. Rather, these loans were originated based on the assumption that housing appreciation would continue indefinitely and that when borrowers ran into trouble, they would refinance or sell.

With this refinance option now foreclosed from many troubled homeowners, we are seeing the devastating results of these reckless lending practices."

The report notes that while payment resets on adjustable rate mortgages have not yet been the driving force in foreclosures, action needs to be taken to address these loans before the payment shock that will come when the rates reset.

Among the other key findings, the report concludes:

  • Seven out of 10 seriously delinquent borrowers are not on track for any loss mitigation option.  While some delinquent homeowners are in contact servicers and working toward a modification of their loan, there continues to be a significant lack of interaction between subprime mortgage servicers and homeowners.  The data in the report indicates that the increasing number of loan delinquencies is outpacing the increase in effort to modify loans and mitigate losses.
  • Servicers have increased their use of loan modifications and other home retention options.  A significant percentage of homeowners who are in contact with servicers are working toward a loan modification.
  • The refinance option has nearly evaporated.  In the past, delinquent homeowners with subprime loans were able to search for and find refinancing.  Now, unless we see dramatic changes in available loan products or a rapid reversal in housing prices, the mortgage industry will not be able to refinance its way out of the current, growing crisis.
 

The data in the report comes from 13 of the top 20 servicers, representing approximately 58 percent of the total subprime servicing market. Of the top 20 servicers solicited for data, seven servicers declined to provide data. Some national banks that service loans declined based on advice from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Madigan and the working group called on the remaining servicers to provide the requested data and on the OCC to urge national banks to report data, so that a complete picture of the subprime servicing market can be provided.

The working group will continue to collect monthly data from servicers and anticipates future reporting on this data. The group also will continue to work directly with the top 20 subprime servicers to remove barriers to increasing the number of loan modifications.

Formed in the summer of 2007, the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group includes Madigan's office and the Attorneys General from 10 other states - Iowa, Arizona, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas - along with the state bank regulators from New York and North Carolina, and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors.

Calendar of Events  
WHAT? Making the Connection: Public Benefits and Single Adults & Public Benefits for Youths up to 21

WHEN? March 5, 2008

WHERE? Naperville, IL

Presented by the DuPage Federation on Human Services

Register Here

 

WHAT? Making the Connection: Mental Health and Public Benefits & Understanding Spenddown

WHEN? March 6, 2008

WHERE?Naperville, IL

Presented by the DuPage Federation on Human Services

Register Here

 

WHAT? Understanding Appeals & Domestic Violence and Public Benefits

WHEN? March 18, 2008

WHERE?Naperville, IL

Presented by the DuPage Federation on Human Services

Register Here

 

WHAT? Center for Tax and Budget Accountability and the Paul Simon Institute at Southern Illinois University Annual Downstate Symposium

WHEN? April 23, 2008

Details to Follow

 

 

WHAT? Immigrants and Public Benefits & Putting the Pieces Together

WHEN? March 19, 2008

WHERE?Naperville, IL

Presented by the DuPage Federation on Human Services

Register Here

 

WHAT? Housing Action Illinois 2008 Convention:  The Changing Landscape of Affordable Housing - Finding Our Way Together

WHEN? May 1 - 2, 2008

WHERE? Naperville, Illinois

 

WHAT? Making the Connection Basic Training

WHEN? Tuesday, June 10, 2008

WHERE? Naperville, IL

Presented by the DuPage Federation on Human Services the session contains practical information in an easy to understand format regarding many programs available to assist low income persons.

Register Here

 
 
 
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Please email Chrissy Mancini