New Report
Issued by COGFA State of Illinois
Economic Outlook and Forecast by Moody's
and Economy.com
SUMMARY
The report finds
that output growth has fallen by half
since the beginning of 2007 and
employment has been trending downward
since peaking in June.
Payrolls in such
industries as construction,
manufacturing and financial services
have been shrinking and the expansion of
such service industries as
education/healthcare,
business/professional and
leisure/hospitality, which have driven
growth in recent years, slowed in 2007.
On a positive
note, job gains are occurring not only
in lower quality business services
(primarily temp help) but also continue
in professional and management/corporate
jobs, which accounted for more than half
of all business/professional jobs
created in the state. These are by far
the best paying jobs created in the
state.
Job growth has
declined throughout the state in places
such as Champaign-Urbana,
Davenport, Peoria and Rockford
experiencing significant decelerations.
However, like the
state most metro areas saw some
improvement at year end. Among the
state's metro areas, the Chicago economy
is holding up better than that of the
state as a whole even though it accounts
for two-thirds of the state's employment
base. While such
Chicago mainstays as financial services
weakened last year under pressure from
the downshifting housing market, such
industries as transportation/utilities
and business/professional services are
holding up better in
Chicago than in the state as a whole due
to Chicago's ties to the global
marketplace,
both in terms of
the provision of services to the global
community and to the movement of both
imported and exported goods. Indeed, the
fourth quarter boost to
business/professional payrolls stems
almost entirely from activity in the
Chicago metro area.
The unemployment
rate has increased to 5.5%, over the
past year.
Illinois is now at heightened risk of
recession for the next few quarters.
Over the long term, Illinois will remain
a below average performing economy due
primarily to its
sub par
demographic trends and concentration of
slow-growing and secularly declining
industries. Service-producing
industries, a more efficient and smaller
manufacturing core and
transportation/distribution industries
will drive the modest pace of growth.
The report is a
comprehensive guide to the Illinois
economy and provides a vast amount of
data. Read the entire report here
