Analysis of Berkeley Research Group Graduated Rate Income Tax Impact Report
Release: October 21, 2020
In early August, the Illinois Chamber of Commerce issued a press release arguing against ratification of the proposed amendment to the Illinois Constitution that will permit the state to utilize a graduated rate structure for its income tax. According to the Illinois Chamber, such ratification, coupled with implementation of the specific graduated rate structure identified in P.A.101-0008, which is called the “Fair Tax” by proponents, would “somehow” shrink the Illinois economy, and disproportionately harm women and minorities. But the press release based these claims on largely unsubstantiated findings contained in an Executive Summary of the report, “Illinois’ Proposed Graduated Income Tax: Impacting Jobs and the Economy,” which the Illinois Chamber paid the Berkeley Research Group (BRG) to produce.
Unfortunately, the Executive Summary does not provide much in the way of support for the conclusions it reaches, nor does it regularly cite its sources, or even provide insight into the model BRG used to reach its conclusions which is particularly problematic in this instance, given that the main findings contained in the Executive Summary are contrary to prior research on migration, tax burden, and the economy.
CTBA decided to reached out to both the BRG and the Illinois Chamber to request a copy of the full report, however, neither the Illinois Chamber nor BRG was willing to make the full report available to either CTBA or the public. CTBA chose to respond to the BRG Executive Summary released by the Illinois Chamber anyway. To find out more about how, when compared to the body of research conducted by credible sources in the relevant areas, the Key Findings presented in the Executive Summary are revealed to be either inaccurate or misleading, please read CTBA’s new Issue Brief, “Analysis of Berkeley Research Group Graduated Rate Income Tax Impact Report.”