Increasing the Income Tax Rate
Release: February 16, 2021
Without new revenue available from the proposed Fair Tax, short-term borrowing, Federal Aid, and cutting some expenditures has allowed Illinois to hold on during the current fiscal year. But this is a short-term solution, and not a sustainable solution in tackling the long-term fiscal woes of Illinois. In our new short report, “Increasing the Income Tax Rate: One Method for Addressing Illinois’ Long-term Fiscal Problems” CTBA analyzes potential benefits of increasing the income tax rate, while ensuring that any increase in the income tax address the regressivity of a flat rate income tax structure through refundable tax credits.
Analysis of Berkeley Research Group Graduated Rate Income Tax Impact Report
Release: October 21, 2020
In early August, the Illinois Chamber of Commerce issued a press release arguing against ratification of the proposed amendment to the Illinois Constitution that will permit the state to utilize a graduated rate structure for its income tax. According to the Illinois Chamber, such ratification, coupled with implementation of the specific graduated rate structure identified in P.A.101-0008, which is called the “Fair Tax” by proponents, would “somehow” shrink the Illinois economy, and disproportionately harm women and minorities. But the press release based these claims on largely unsubstantiated findings contained in an Executive Summary of the report, “Illinois’ Proposed Graduated Income Tax: Impacting Jobs and the Economy,” which the Illinois Chamber paid the Berkeley Research Group (BRG) to produce.
Unfortunately, the Executive Summary does not provide much in the way of support for the conclusions it reaches, nor does it regularly cite its sources, or even provide insight into the model BRG used to reach its conclusions which is particularly problematic in this instance, given that the main findings contained in the Executive Summary are contrary to prior research on migration, tax burden, and the economy.
CTBA decided to reached out to both the BRG and the Illinois Chamber to request a copy of the full report, however, neither the Illinois Chamber nor BRG was willing to make the full report available to either CTBA or the public. CTBA chose to respond to the BRG Executive Summary released by the Illinois Chamber anyway. To find out more about how, when compared to the body of research conducted by credible sources in the relevant areas, the Key Findings presented in the Executive Summary are revealed to be either inaccurate or misleading, please read CTBA’s new Issue Brief, “Analysis of Berkeley Research Group Graduated Rate Income Tax Impact Report.”
Debunking the Myth that Tax Policy Causes Out-Migration
Release: October 14, 2020
On November 3, 2020, voters will have the chance to ratify an amendment to the Illinois Constitution which would allow the state to use a graduated rate structure for its income tax. Ratification of this amendment would permit implementation of Public Act 101-0008 (“P.A. 101-0008”) which was signed into law on June 5, 2019. If implemented, this legislation which is frequently referred to as the “Fair Tax” by proponents, would replace the state’s current flat rate income tax with a graduated rate structure that: is tied to ability to pay; in normal economic times would raise around $3.5 billion in new revenue annually; and would effectively help eliminate some of the long-term structural flaws that have consistently made Illinois’ overall tax system one of the most unfair and poorly performing in the nation.
Many of those opposed to the Fair Tax have tried to mislead Illinoisans into voting against ratifying the proposed amendment to the state’s constitution this November, by relying on arguments that have emotional appeal but are not supported by either evidence or the vast body of research. One such specious argument consistently made against the proposed Fair Tax is that the change to a graduated rate income tax structure will cause a mass exodus of middle-income households and millionaires from Illinois.
This claim, however, is exposed for the baseless canard it is when evaluated against the body of research covering the relationship—or as it turns out lack thereof—between tax policy and migration, as well as the relevant data from the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”), U.S. Census Bureau, and the Illinois Department of Revenue (“IDOR”). People (including millionaires) move for many complicated, interrelated reasons, least of which is because of tax policy.
Implementing the “Fair Tax” Will Help the Illinois Fiscal System
Release: October 1, 2020
On November 3rd, 2020, Illinois voters will have the opportunity to ratify the proposed amendment to the Illinois Constitution that would eliminate the mandate that state income taxes be assessed using only one flat rate.
This is a crucial moment for Illinois since it has historically been, and currently remains, one of the most unfair taxing states in the nation. From a textbook standpoint, an “unfair” tax system is a regressive tax system—that is, one that imposes a greater tax burden on low- and middle-income families than on affluent families, when tax burden is measured as a percentage of income. It is unfair because such a system fails to allocate tax burden in a manner that correlates with ability to pay, thereby worsening the substantial growth in income inequality that has occurred in the private sector over the last four decades. But building fairness into a state tax system is difficult, given that every tax—or fee for that matter—which is available to fund public services provided at the state or local level is regressive except for one: the income tax. The income tax is the only tax that can actually be designed to comport with ability to pay and hence create some tax fairness, because it is the only tax that can be designed to assess higher tax rates on higher levels of income, and lower rates on lower levels of income.
Unfortunately, Article IX, Section 3 of the Illinois Constitution mandates that the state income tax be imposed at one flat rate across all levels of income. Hence, Illinois is constitutionally prohibited from utilizing the income tax to play the essential tax policy role of offsetting the natural regressivity of every other tax and fee imposed at either the state or local level. In fact, Illinois’ inability to build some fairness into its tax system through implementation of a graduated rate income tax has played a major role in driving the ongoing deficits in the state’s General Fund, while also hampering private sector economic growth. The good news is a genuine opportunity for meaningful reform of the Illinois income tax now exists. That is because on June 5, 2019, Governor Pritzker signed Public Act 101-0008 (“P.A. 101-0008”) into law. If implemented, this legislation will create a new, graduated rate income tax structure, frequently referred to as the “Fair Tax” by proponents, to replace the state’s current flat rate income tax.
To learn more about how the Fair Tax not only ties income tax burden to ability to pay, but also raises new revenue in a manner that will effectively help eliminate some of the long-term structural flaws that have consistently made Illinois’ overall tax system one of the most unfair and poorly performing in the nation, please read the new CTBA Report, “Implementing the “Fair Tax” Will Help the Illinois Fiscal System Respond Better to the Modern Economy While Promoting Tax Fairness.”
Impact on Illinois' Structural Deficit
Release: October 21, 2019
The state of Illinois faces a significant structural deficit into the future. The report highlights the nature of the structural deficit and identifies two key causes: the state’s historically flawed tax policy and the plan devised for repayment of Illinois’ pension debt. CTBA proposes both the adoption of the Fair Tax and a reamortization of the pension debt as described in the report titled: Addressing Illinois’ Pension Debt Crisis With Reamortization. Doing so would allow the State to ensure full funding for the Evidence Based Funding Formula while also improving the status of Illinois’ public employee pension system and eliminating the State’s structural deficit by 2042.